基于Budyko假设的年径流计算方法在湿润地区年径流模拟中的应用

Application of Annual Runoff Calculating Based on Budyko Hypothesis in Simulated Annual Discharge of Humid Watershed

鉴于湿润地区气候和人类活动对径流预报结果的影响，以淠河流域横排头水文站以上的六个子流域为例，基于Budyko假设的五种公式进行了年径流量模拟，对1960～1987、2001～2009年两个时段分别进行率定和检验。结果表明，六个子流域中，只有黄尾河、白莲崖和横排头子流域适用五种公式（NSE平均值±标准差依次为0.677±0.157、0.718±0.147、0.687±0.101）；Turc Pike公式和傅抱璞公式的模拟结果均能接受（NSE平均值±标准差依次为0.681±0.139、0.677±0.141 ），产生误差的原因在于不同阶段降雨—径流的相关性对模型模拟精度的影响较大（P〈0.05）。

In humid region, complex climate and frequent human activities make the runoff forecasting be more difficult. The aim of this study uses the five formulas derived from the Budyko hypothesis to simulate the six catchments＇ annual runoff in Hengpaitou basin of Pi River. The calibration period is 1960 1987, and the validation period is 2001 2009. The result indicates that among six catchments, Huangweihe, Bailianya and Hengpaitou catchments are the most suitable with Budyko hypothesis （the average NSE±standard deviations in proper sequence are 0.677±0.157, 0.718±0.147 and 0.687±0.101, respectively）. By comparison, Turc Pike and Fubaopu formulas have good performance in all catchments （the average NSE±standard deviations in proper sequence are 0.681±0.139 and 0.677±0.141，respectively）. Besides, the error of formulas’ simulation is associated with the rainfall runoff of correlation （P〈0.05）.