美国“亚太再平衡”战略前景论析

The U.S.Rebalance toward Asia:Quo Vadis?

五年来,美国的"再平衡"战略一直饱受诟病,实质上折射出美国战略调整的困境,印证了美国已从唯一超级大国蜕变为特殊大国,沦为一个摇摆的力量。美国"再平衡"源于战略焦虑,主要在政治、经济与军事三个层面铺开。"再平衡"战略出现了美国"重返"亚太政策的军事化,这将损害美国分享亚洲地区经济红利的机会。美国的"再平衡"战略或为其盟友利用。增添了美国的战略负担。美国越来越多地介入南海事务,成为南海争端的"第三方"。囿于美国决策者抱残守缺,试图以20世纪的方式来应对21世纪的问题,"再平衡"战略的出发点、动机和方式均存在严重瑕疵与漏洞,加上推行过程中还受到国内外因素的严重掣肘,影响这一战略的变数甚多,心有余而力不足的矛盾更加突出,说明了美国将难以摆脱其战略困境。而且中东与乌克兰危机都会分散美国的注意力。或许美国会逐渐认识到,在没有外来主导的情况下,亚洲国家有能力、有智慧塑造和构建一个互利共赢的新秩序。

The U.S.rebalance to Asia has created heightened concerns both inside and outside America about U.S.intentions since Barack Obama entered the White House in 2009.Deepening its diplomatic,economic,and military engagement in Asia,American's perceived sense of anxiety and insecurity has been intensified along with the rise of the rest including China.The United States has kept strengthening its forces in the region by militarizing its pivot policy,which will consequently jeopardize its opportunity to harness the potential economic dividends in Asia.There is also a danger that the Asian alliance tail is wagging the American dog.Washington,by getting itself involved in the troubled water,may become a "third factor" of the South China Sea.American policy makers attempt to address the 21 st century challenges by executing the 20 th century method.It only highlights American strategic dilemma.Furthermore,the Ukraine crisis together with the Middle East is surely becoming a distraction for American's rebalance.Perhaps,Washington might recognize that Asian countries,free from any dominant external power,are able to construct and reshape a new regional order featuring mutual benefit and win-win scenario.