人民币境外存量的测算与分析——基于1992～2012年季度数据的实证研究

Assessment and Analysis on the Renminbi Offshore Stock:an Empirical Study Based on Quarterly Data from 2004 to 2012

本文基于1992—2012年季度数据，运用扣除本地需求法，测算了2004～2012年人民币境外存量。结果显示，自2004年起人民币境外存量呈现稳步上升的态势，从2004年第1季度的105．5亿元，上升到2012年第4季度的144．1亿元，且没有表现出过度的波动性；但人民币境外存量占M0的份额却持续下降，由2004年第1季度的0．55％下降至2012年第4季度的0．27％。进一步分析表明，人民币升值及升值预期是人民币境外存量变动的重要原因，而货币供应量（以M0衡量）的增长速度过快则导致了人民币境外存量占M0份额的持续下降。

This paper estimates the scale of renminbi offshore stock during 2004 to 2012, using a method of deduction of local demand and quarterly data from 1992 to 2012. The result indicates that the scale of renminbi offshore stock has shown a steady rising trend, rising from 10.55 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2004 to 14.41 billion yuan in the last quarter of 2012, showing no excessive volatility. But its share in M0has continued to decline over the same period, decreasing from 0.55% in the first quarter of 2004 to 0.27% in the last quarter of 2012. Further analysis shows that the appreciation of renminbi and expectation for renminbi appreciation have been the important reasons for the rising scale of renminbi offshore stock, while its declining share in M0 seem to be due to the high growth rate of China＇s money supply.