2000年墨西哥大选革命制度党下台原因探讨——基于选民情况分析的视角

Analysis of Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party Failing in 2000 Election Based on the Perspective of Voters

革命制度党在2000年的大选中下台不仅与其推行的经济社会发展政策和党内腐败等因素有关,而且与革命制度党的社会支持基础有着重要关系。通过对2000年墨西哥大选选民数据的分析,可以看出,革命制度党的选民文化程度相对较低、年龄偏大、收入较低,主要分布在农村地区。研究表明,随着墨西哥城市化的推进和经济社会的发展,革命制度党没有及时开拓城市中的社会支持基础,没有争取年轻人和社会精英的支持;同时,原有的职团结构基础也逐渐瓦解,越来越多的选民对革命制度党执政丧失信心,最终导致了革命制度党在2000年的大选中下台。

Institutional Revolutionary Party failed in the 2000 election, which not only related to the implementation of economic and social policies, but also related to the corruption of the party and other factors. The voters who supported Institutional Revolutionary Party are relatively old with lower education and income, and lived in rural areas based on the analysis of voter data in 2000 election. With the development of urbanization and economy in Mexico, the Institutional Revolutionary Party didn＇ t obtain the support in the city in time. At the same time, the social base of Institutional Revolutionary Party collapsed, more and more young people depressed with it, which resulted in the failure of Institutional Revolutionary Party in 2000 election.