基于多Agent系统的区域森林碳汇经营决策机制仿真研究

SIMULATION RESEARCH ON THE DECISION-MAKING MECHANISM OF REGIONAL FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION OPERATION BASED ON MULTI-AGENT SYSTEM

基于多Agent系统交互规则,采用一个不确定条件下的积分算法,构建了区域森林碳汇经营决策机制模型,并以浙江省杉木人工林为案例,进行了仿真分析.研究结果表明:在目前以国际标准方法计算的政府碳税率背景下,企业的碳汇需求价格不会改变农户的传统森林经营模式,区域森林碳汇经营实践的现状与国家相关规划尚存在较大差距,而企业社会责任意识偏低,碳汇交易成本偏高是制约当前森林碳汇交易市场发展的两个重要因素.

Based on multi-agent system interaction rules, using an integration al- gorithm under the uncertain condition, the model of decision-making mechanism of regional forest carbon sequestration operation is proposed, and the Zhejiang Province artificial forest example as a case is simulated and analysed. The results show thatif the carbon tax rate is formulated according to the international standard method, which is not enough to change the farmers＇ traditional forest operation model. The reality of the operation practice of regional forest carbon sequestration has a larger gap compared with the the government relevant planning. The two important factors, i.e., lower awareness of corporate social responsibility and higher transaction cost of carbon sequestration, constrain the development of the forest carbon sequestration trading market.