基于模糊评判-综合赋权的煤层底板突水危险性评价

Risk assessment of coal floor groundwater bursting based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-comprehensive weight

我国煤矿面临的水害威胁中底板高承压水的突出问题是对煤层安全开采最大的威胁,对煤层底板水害进行准确预测预报具有重要的理论指导意义和实用价值.根据煤层底板突水是受多因素影响并且具有非线性特征的特点,在建立定量与定性指标为一体的煤层底板突水评价指标体系的基础上,将模糊综合评判法和综合赋权法相结合,建立了考虑底板突水复杂的多因素影响的预测评价模型.在评价模型中应用综合赋权法确定指标权重,把主观与客观赋权法有机集成起来.最后,应用该耦合评价模型对河北单侯矿的典型工作面进行了底板水害危险性评价,评价效果较好.为今后煤层底板突水预测评价的研究提供一定的参考依据.

Outstanding issues for floor high confined water is the most threat to coal layer safe extraction in coal mine water disasters threat,it has an important theoretical guiding significance and practical value for accurately forecasting coal floor water disasters.According that water-inrush from coal floor is affected by many factors and has nonlinear characteristics,this paper established a forecasting evaluation model considering complex multi-factors and combined a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and a comprehensive weight method based on a coal-floor water bursting evaluation-index system integrating of quantitative and qualitative indexes.The weighing values are determined by comprehensive weight in the model,the subjective and the objective weight are combined with the comprehensive weight.Finally,applying this coupling evaluation model to evalu ate floor water disasters of Danhou coalmine in Hebei,the evaluating effect is well.It can provide a certain reference and a basis for the evaluation of water-inrush from coal floor forecast in the future.