犯罪热点分布与驱动因子分析

Analyzing on Crime Hot-spots Distribution and their Driving Factors

盗窃和抢劫作为最普遍的犯罪形态,是各级公共安全部门的工作重点。而发现犯罪热点的时空分布和掌握驱动因子对于犯罪宏观规律的把握非常重要。一方面,基于特定时间尺度的连续的犯罪空间热点分析,有助于帮助公安部门发现特定犯罪类型的犯罪热点的分布形态和变化规律;另一方面,基于主成分分析法,通过对案件发生的诸多驱动因子进行选择,可以发现犯罪热点的主要影响因素;采用Getis-Ord Gi*热点分析和主成分分析方法,对某市2009年盗窃、抢劫犯罪的月度数据进行了深入分析,得出了相应的结论,为警力在特定时间和空间上的合理分配以及主要的管理方向提供了建议。

As the two most common crime types, theft and robbery are the key working points for the public security department. And it is also very important to find the temporal-spatial distribution of crime hotspots and master its driving factors in learning the macro-law of crime. In one way, the continuous analysis on spatial hotspot based on specific temporal level could help the public security department find the patterns and its changing law of specified crime types; in another, the main influencing factors of the specified crime types could be discovered by analyzing the main contributors among the many driving factors based on the Principal Component Analysis （PCA）. This paper has analyzed the monthly theft and robbery data by adopting Getis-Ord Gi＊ as hotspots analysis method and PCA and comes to the corresponding conclusion, which offers valuable suggestions not only for the distribution of police forces on specific time and space but also for the management targets of the police work.