中国碳强度的收敛性及其影响因素研究

Research on the Convergence of Carbon Intensity in China and its Influencing Factors

选取1995年～2011年中国的省际面板数据，采用经济增长理论中的收敛分析方法和基于回归方程的因素分解法进行检验，结果表明：全国、中部和西部地区的碳强度不存在绝对β收敛，但存在条件β收敛，东部、东北地区的碳强度存在俱乐部收敛；人均收入、技术水平、能源消费结构、城市化水平、贸易开放、重工业比重、产权结构等因素的区域差异对中国碳强度的省际差异形成均起到一定作用，其中人均收入对碳强度省际差异的解释度最高，其次是技术水平与能源消费结构，再次是贸易开放和城市化水平，最后是重工业重和产权结构。

Based on China＇s provincial panel data during 1995 -2011, and using the convergence analy- sis method based on the theory of economic growth and the decomposition method based on regression equa- tions, this paper makes an empirical study on the carbon intensity＇s convergence and influencing factors. It shows that： the carbon intensity of the whole nation, the central and western regions does not show an abso- lute β convergence, but a conditional β convergence. The club convergence of carbon intensity exists in the eastern and northeast areas. The regional difference of the per capita income, the level of technology, energy consumption structure, urbanization level, trade openness, the proportion of heavy industry, and the struc- ture of property rights play a role on the provincial difference of China＇s carbon intensity. Per capita income has the most important influence on the inter-provincial difference of carbon emission intensity, followed by technology level and energy consumption structure, open trade and urbanization level, but the proportion of heavy industry and the structure of property rights are low.