浙江省台风灾害直接经济损失评估模型

Direct Economic Losses Assessment of Typhoon Disaster in Zhejiang Province

基于浙江省1984―2007年发生的40个台风数据及历史灾情数据,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾4个方面选取影响因子,利用模糊综合评价方法建立直接经济损失模型,并对其进行验证。结果显示:该模型具有较高的拟合率,相关性系数达到0.806;基于3次台风过程数据进行模型验证和误差分析得知其模拟值与实际统计值基本一致,模拟误差在合理的范围之内;模型能够较好地评估一次台风灾害可能造成的直接经济损失,为政府部门的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据和决策支持,具有实际意义。

Destructive typhoon usually causes serious direct economic losses and restricts economic development. Through the establishment of economic losses assessment model,the relevant departments for disaster prevention and reduction could more easily make decisions. Based on the data of 40 typhoon disasters and historical data in Zhejiang Province during 1984-2007, this paper selected hazard risk, disaster environmental sensitivity, vulnerability of disaster bodies, and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities as the four influencing factors to establish a direct economic losses assessment model with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Correlation analysis result showed that the model had a high fitting rate with a correlation coefficient 0.806. For verification of the model, the data of three typhoons were used to make error analysis. The results showed that the analog values of the direct economic losses were basically in accord with the actual, and the simulation error was within a reasonable range. It is considered that the model established in this paper could reasonably evaluate the direct economic losses caused by typhoon disaster and give support to the decision-making of the government.