第19届男足世界杯决赛阶段比赛制胜特征研究

Research on the Winning Law of the High Level Men's Soccer Game——Taking 19th FIFA World Cup as Example

采用文献资料调研、数理统计法、逻辑分析法,对第19届男子足球世界杯决赛阶段48场分出胜负的比赛中胜、负双方的43项技术指标进行分析,并对四强球队的技术指标进行对比分析,其目的是探索足球比赛中的制胜因素以及四强球队较其他球队的优势和劣势。研究结果表明:1)足球比赛中对胜负影响的关键性因素有:传球类技术指标共计7项,包括传球总数、成功传球次数、向前传球数、斜传转移次数、向后传球次数、短传次数、争顶成功次数;进攻类技术指标4项,包括进球数、射门总数、射正次数、助攻;门将技术为失球、扑救2项。2)西班牙队的控、传球优势非常明显,且防守能力强,门将的压力相对较小。荷兰队则以长传球为主要的进攻手段,在防守上也非常严密。德国队失球数也明显低于平均数,但防守不够严密,门将压力相对较大。乌拉圭在控球时长和平均控球时间上均明显低于平均数,是以防守反击为主的球队。3)对于足球胜负规律的认识不应局限于固定的模式,每支球队应当针对自己球队的特点制定战术打法。

By using the methods of literature review, statistical analysis, and logical analysis, this study conducts a systematic analysis on statistics of 48 games in 19th FIFA World Cup, and conducts a comparative analysis on statistics of final four teams with the purpose of searching the winning law of the football game and the advantages and disadvantages of final four teams. The research shows that： 1 ） The crucial factors of winning and losing in football game are： seven passing technical indexes including total passing, successful passing, forward passing, deflecting passing, backward passing, short passing, and successful head duel; four offensive technical indexes including goals, total shooting, successful shooting, assisting; and two techniques of the goalkeeper including losing possession of the ball and saving. 2） Spain has obvious advantages on passing and ball control, and it also has strong defensive work. Netherlands takes the long pass as its main attacking method, and has tight defense. The intensity of Germany＇ s defense is not very strong, so the goalkeeper has more pressure than others. Uruguay is the team with the style of defense and fighting back. 3 ） The winning law of the football game should not be confined to a fixed mode. Every team should set up tactics according to its own characteristics.