人口年龄结构对消费的影响:中国城镇的实证研究

The Impact of Population Age Structure on Consumption: An Empirical Study of Urban Areas in China

文章在生命周期理论基础上，使用CHIP1988年、1995年、2002年和2007年社会调查城镇家庭微观数据，将人口年龄结构转变的消费效应分解为出生组效应和年龄效应，实证研究人口年龄结构变化对消费的影响。实证结果显示：不同出生组在同一年龄时的消费行为差异很大，越年轻组别在消费上表现出越大的组效应，即年轻出生组比老年出生组显示出更高的消费率。文章的政策含义是：提高居民消费，短期需要关注老年人消费，长期需要防止年轻人消费过度，并考虑中长期保持甚至提升储蓄率的必要性，以避免10～20年之后陷入欧美发达国家包括日本所面临的储蓄率过低的困境。

Based on the theory of life cycle, the paper classifies the consumption effect of population age structure change into the effect of birth group and the effect of age by using the mi- cro data of urban households CHIP in 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2007, and an empirical study is made on the impact of population age structure change on consumption. Empirical results show that the consumption behavior of people in different birth group varies a lot with they are at the same age, and birth groups with younger ages show stronger group effects on consumption. That is, the consumption rate of young age birth group is higher than old age birth group. The policy connotation of the paper is ： to improve resident consumption, we should focus on the consumption of old people in the short term, and try to avoid over - consumption of the young people in the long run. We should take into consideration the necessity to keep or improve savings rate in the medi- um and long run to avoid the dilemma of excessive low savings rate after 10 to 20 years that is hap- pening in the developed countries of Europe, U.S. and Japan.