二元市场、信贷摩擦与货币政策——货币政策应对劳动力市场做出反应吗?

Dual Markets,Credit Frictions and Monetary Policies ——Should Monetary Policy React to the Labor Market?

在一个包含正规部门与非正规部门的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型中,通过搜寻与匹配摩擦将失业引入,并考察中国货币政策盯住目标的选择问题。基于外生货币政策的脉冲响应函数,发现在包含多部门的模型中,政策制定者仍面临着稳定产出缺口与稳定劳动力市场的权衡取舍。而基于社会福利损失角度,相对于不对劳动力市场做出反应的政策机制而言,对劳动力市场做出反应的政策机制,无论是对工资膨胀率还是对失业做出反应,均引起较小的社会福利损失。这一结论意味着在当前中国社会就业形势日益严峻以及经济增长就业弹性相对较小的背景下,采用对劳动力市场直接做出反应的政策机制有利于实现缓和社会就业形势与降低社会福利损失的"双赢"。

Through searching and matching trictions, the paper puts unemptoymem into the new Keynesian DSGE model with formal sectors and informal sectors, and investigates the choice of China＇s monetary policy on its target object. Based on the impulse response function of exoge- nous monetary policy, the author finds out that monetary policy makers are facing a tradeoff be- tween the stabilization of output and the labor market. From the angle of social welfare loss, policy mechanism which reacts to the labor market about wage inflation or unemployment leads to compar- atively small social welfare loss, compared with the policy mechanism which has no reaction to the labor market. The conclusion indicates that under the background of the difficult employment situ- ation of China and the comparatively low employment elasticity of economic growth, the adoption of the policy mechanism which directly reacts to the labor market can lead to a win -win outcome of alleviating social employment and decreasing social welfare loss.