贸易自由化如何影响我国制造业区位分布——基于关税减让的分析

How does Trade Liberalization Affects Geographic Lay-out of Manufacturing Industry in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Tariff Reduction

入世后的2002-2005年我国大幅度减让关税,而此前和之后的关税水平基本保持不变,这为考察贸易自由化的空间影响提供了一个准实验机会。现有研究大多以贸易规模反映贸易自由化,而以关税减让反映贸易自由化更具现实意义。通过对我国280多个地级以上城市两位数制造业就业份额和城市空间区位数据的实证研究显示,贸易自由化对于制造业区位分布的影响具有空间异质性:从总体样本来看,贸易自由化促进了制造业向东部沿海核心区的集聚;进一步对子样本的研究则发现,关税减让的影响突出反映在东部地区,其对于中西部地区制造业的影响并不明显。这些结论对于促进区域协调发展的政策设计与选择具有启示意义。

During the first five years of its entry into the WTO,China has undergone large-scale tariff reduction with coverage of nearly all trade commodities. This provides an opportunity for a quasi-experiment to study the spatial impact of trade liberalization. While trade liberalization is reflected in trade volume in most of studies,it is more realistic to have it reflected in tariff reduction. Based on the data of jobs in manufacturing sector with the information of its geographic lay-out obtained from280 cities,an empirical study is conducted to analyze the impact of tariff reduction on the locations of China's manufacturing industry. The findings reveal that trade liberalization has induced a tendency for the manufacturing industry to crowd into the major areas along the eastern coast. Detailed analyses show it is the eastern coastal provinces,rather than the central and western ones,that have been put in the wake of tariff reduction,and this fact has very instructive meanings for the policy making concerned.