基于LSTR模型的个人卫生支出与经济增长关系研究

Estimation on the Relationship between Personal Health Expenditure and Economic Growth in China Based on the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression Model

目的:刻画我国个人现金卫生支出与经济增长的非线性关系。方法:建立Logistic平滑转换模型,分析政府卫生支出对个人现金卫生支出与经济增长的非线性关系的影响。结果:经济增长对个人现金卫生支出的影响划分为3个阶段:1978—1996年处于高机制状态,1997—2008年处于机制转换时期,2009年至今处于低机制状态。结论:继续深化医药卫生体制改革,降低个人卫生支出负担。

Objective： To describe the non-linear relationship between out-of-pocket（OOP） payment and economic growth. Methods： Using logistic smooth transition regression model to analyze the impact of＇ government health expenditure on the non-liner relationship between OOP payment and economic growth. Results： The impact of economic growth on OOP health expenditure is divided into 3 stages： from 1978 to 1996, the influence of economic growth on out-of-pocket payment approaches to highly-efficient mechanism operation; from 1997 to 2008 belongs to the transition period, it stays as low-efficient mechanism operation since 2009. Conclusion： To continue deepening the medical and health system reform and reduce the burden of personal health expenditure.