基于VAR模型的“四化”同步发展与金融支持的关系研究——以安徽省为例

An Analysis on Relationship between Synchronous Development of Four Modernizations and Financial Support Based on VAR Model——A Case Study of Anhui Province

工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化是我国社会主义现代化建设的战略任务,金融是现代经济的核心,它们之间是相互联系的。利用安徽省1987—2012年相关数据,采用VAR模型,运用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量分析手段,考察"四化"与金融发展之间的关系,实证结果表明:安徽省金融市场的发展有效地促进了"四化"的进程,同时安徽省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的进步反过来又活跃和发展了金融市场。但是,安徽省信息化水平的提高并没有像预期中那样支持金融市场的发展。金融冲击在短期内对工业化的正向影响最为显著,而对农业现代化的负向影响最大;金融冲击在中期阶段对信息化的影响最为显著,而对城镇化的正向影响最为深远。

Industrialization, information technology, urbanization and agricultural modernization are the strate gic task of China＇s construction of socialist modernization. Finance is the core of modern economy. They are inter connected. According to the relevant data of Anhui province from 1987 to 2012, this paper made use of the VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition means and so on to study the relationship between the ＂four modernizations＂ and financial development. The empirical results show that the de velopment of financial markets in Anhui province has effectively promoted the process of the ＂four modernizations＂ , while the progress of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization has also activated and developed financial markets in turn in Anhui province. However, the improvement of the level of information technology in Anhui province has not supported the development of the financial market as expected. Financial shocks have a positive impact on industrialization in short term and most significantly negative impact on the agricultural moderni zation. In the medium term, the affect of financial shocks on information technology is the most significant, while its positive affect on urbanization is the most profound.