江苏进出口贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Import and Export and Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

从2000—2013年的GDP和进出口数据出发,运用HP滤波、相关分析、偏相关分析、协整理论和Granger因果检验,对江苏省进出口与经济增长的关系进行实证分析可见,出口额、进出口总额与江苏省GDP的增长均具有较为显著的正向关系。通过活跃外贸活动扩大出口仍将是推动江苏经济增长的主要因素之一。

The relationship between import and export and economic growth in Jiangsu is studied-based on the data of time series sampled quarterly from 2000 to 2013 by using the HP filter, correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, co-integration and Granger-causality test. The result shows that export and the total import and export volume all have significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Increasing foreign trade activities to expand exports will still be one of the main factors to promote economic growth in Jiangsu province.