中国的M_2/GDP(1980—2000):趋势、水平和影响因素

China's M_2/GDP (1980—2000):Trend,Level and Determinants

M2 GDP蕴涵了货币需求与国民收入之间的函数关系 ,其水平及变动由货币需求决定。 1 980— 2 0 0 0年间 ,中国的M2 GDP呈上升趋势 ,反映出同期货币需求水平不断上升的现实。除长期走势之外 ,中国的M2 GDP还呈逆周期变动趋势 ,原因在于由谨慎动机引起的货币需求具有逆周期波动的特点。从世界范围内来看 ,中国属于M2 GDP比较高的国家 (地区 )之一 ,但国别比较表明各国 (地区 )并不存在一个标准水平。中国的M2 GDP 2 0年来快速上升 ,从货币层面来看 ,其原因是准货币 GDP快速上升 ;从经济层面来看 ,其原因是 :货币化和居民储蓄存款的投资性质、银行等金融机构金融工具单一、金融市场不发达、银行不良资产比率高。由于M2 GDP水平是由货币需求因素决定的 ,因而不能靠压低货币供应的办法来遏止其上升。

M 2/GDP implies the functional relation between money demand and national income,whose level and trend are determined by money demand.In 1980—2000,Chinas M 2/GDP exhibits an upward trend,which reflects the fact that Chinas money demand rises up within the same period.In addition to the long run trend,Chinas M 2/GDP exhibits an anti cycle movement for the reason that money demand caused by precautionary incentive has an anti cycle character. In world wide view,China is one of the countries(districts) whose levels of M 2/GDP are relatively high. An international comparison shows that there is no unique standard level of M 2/GDP across nations (districts). From the view of monetary sector,the reason that Chinas M 2/GDP rises quickly in the past twenty years is that quasi money/GDP rises up quickly. From the view of economic sector,the factors causing the upward trend of Chinas M 2/GDP are derived from monetarization,household deposit as financial investment instrument,undeveloped financial market and high ratio of bad asset in banking system. The level of M 2/GDP,which is determined by money demand,can not be pushed down with the way of lowering money supply.