美、德两国产业结构发展对就业的影响——基于变系数模型的分析

The Impact on Employment of the Development Structure of Two Different Industrial in U.S. and German——Analysis of the Model with Variable Coefficient

不同于其他以中国为样本、就中国谈中国的实证研究,本文以美国和德国为研究对象、使用变系数模型来研究产业结构与就业之间的关系。首先对美德两国的产业、就业等指标进行了比较分析;其次,构建了常系数回归模型和变系数模型,定量分析了两国的产业特征对就业的影响以及随时间变化的规律。研究表明:样本期内,美国在产业合理化上高于德国;在产业高级化上,美国的上升速度较德国更快,数值更大;泰尔指数与就业的增长是显著的负相关关系,产业结构高级化与就业的增长具有显著正相关关系。最后,本文为我国产业结构合理化和高级化提出了针对性的建议。

In this paper, we choose the United States and Germany as research objects and use variable coefficient model to study the relationship between industrial structure and employment. We compare with two countries＇ industrial structure and rationalization and optimization of industrial structure. The constant coefficient regression model was constructed to make quantitative analysis on the impact on employment of industry characteristics between two countries. And we also build a variable coefficient model, with employment growth variation of industrial structure were analyzed. During sample period, constant coefficient model analysis showed that theil index and employment growth has a significant negative correlation while optimization of industrial structure and employment growth has a significant positive correlation. Variable coefficient model analysis showed that the period which optimization of industrial structure had greatest impact on employment is different. At last, this paper gives targeted recommendations for the rationalization and advancement of China＇s industrial structure.