服务贸易结构特征及演变模式研究——基于北京市12个行业数据的分析

本文根据北京市12个服务行业的数据,从产业间与产业内贸易两个角度,利用RSCA、Lafay指数对北京服务贸易进行了测算,结果表明:北京市服务贸易整体处于比较劣势状态,服务贸易由资源型与劳动密集型行业向资本密集型行业转移,贸易模式由产业间贸易向产业内贸易转移。同时,利用Galton回归分析法考察了北京服务贸易模式的Cantwell变动效应,结果表明:以RSCA指数衡量的专业化程度与以Lafay指数衡量的专业化程度存在相反的变化趋势。最后,通过JB检验选择采用显示性比较优势进行衡量,结果显示:北京市服务贸易专业化程度略有下降,发展较为缓慢,为渐进式发展。

This paper analyzes the structure features and trade pattern changes of service trades of Beijing from inter - industry trade and intra - industry trade based on the data of twelve industries in Beijing by applying RSCA and Lafay indexes. The results show that service trades of Beijing are at a disadvantage as a whole, the service trades shift from resources and labor intensive industry to capital intensive industry, and the trade pattern shifts from inter- industry trade to intra- industry trade. Fur- thermore, this paper studies the effects of Cantwell changes in the trade pattern of Beijing services through Cantwell regression analysis. The results show that the changes in the degrees of specialization measured by the RSCA and measured by the Lafay index are different. Through JB test, we make the measurements by the revealed comparative advantage, which indicates that the degree of specialization of Beijing＇ s service trades declines slightly, and the development has been relatively slow, which is a kind of progressive development.