北京住房供应政策影响房价的模型研究

Study on Homing Supply Policy Inter- vention Model on Beijing Housing Price

以2000~2007年北京市住房市场数据为基础,建立了北京住房供应政策影响住房价格的系统动力学模型,解释了住房供应政策影响住房价格的影响机理、政策环境和影响程度,认为住房供应政策存在迟滞效应,住房供应政策与其他政策相互制约,以及住房供应政策相对于其他政策的低敏感性,建议加强住房供给环节的监控和多政策的综合运用。

Based on the Beijing housing market data from 2000 to 2007, a System Dynamics Model on Beijing Housing Market is established to explain the influ- ence of housing supply policy on housing price--the mechanism, the policy envi- ronrnent and the degree of the influence. It concludes that housing supply policy has delayed effect on housing market, and it is constrained by other policies, some of which are much more sensitive. Therefore, the article suggests streng- thening the monitoring of housing supply and adopting comprehensive policies.