利率市场化的宏观经济效应研究

The Macroeconomic Effects of Interest Rate Liberalization in China

利率是引导金融资源配置的信号,利率市场化改革必将对经济主体利益产生重要影响。本文在分析了经济主体在"存、贷利率管制"情形下福利状况后,基于我国制造业上市企业微观层面的大样本数据,对利率市场化的影响进行了经验分析。分析结果表明,在利率市场化后,企业能更好地平滑融资成本冲击,实现福利增进。基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的模拟结果也进一步证实,在利率市场化后,受益于居民消费的跨期平滑、中央银行可以通过调节真实利率进而有效地调控经济增长和物价水平;在居民、企业、中央银行三部门同时实现福利效用最大化的约束前提下,利率市场化能有效提高货币政策传导效率,消除中国经济发展中的价格之谜。

Interest is a signal of the allocation of financial resources. Interest rate liberalization can benefit China significantly. By using dynamic panel data 2SLS estimations, this paper shows that interest rate liberalization could ease financial restraints, and improve the allocation efficiency of investment effectively. Through simulations in a DSGE model, we find that interest rate liberalization could improve the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, and enhance the financial access of underserved sectors. The conclusion is that we should promote the interest rate liberalization reform steadily, update traditional development concepts, increase capital efficiency and transfer to consumption based model of economic growth with interest rate liberalization reform, as well as maintain price-level stability through monetary policy, and achieve a sustainable healthy development of China＇ s economy.