基于系统动力学的供应链融资零售商订货策略

Retailer's ordering policy with supply chain financing based on system dynamics

为分析在贸易信用和存货质押融资下,面临资金约束的零售商的订货策略优化问题,采用系统动力学方法,对供应链融资的零售商订货策略进行建模使其实现收益最大化.首先,采用指数平滑方法对市场需求进行预测,并对零售商的订购策略进行多个周期的模拟.然后,对与零售商订货策略相关的参数进行灵敏度分析,并采用试凑法对策略参数进行优化,最终确定零售商订货策略的最优安全系数和指数平滑系数.算例分析表明,运用该方法可使面临资金约束的零售商在模拟时间段内实现平均利润最大化.

To realize the ordering policy optimization of the retailers, who face capital constraint, with considering trade credit and inventory financing, a model based on system dynamics is built for retailers＇ ordering strategy with supply chain financing to maximize their profits. First, the exponential smooth method is adopted to forecast market demand, and the multi-period simulation is done on retailers＇ orde- ring policy. Then, the sensitivity analysis of the parameters related to retailers＇ ordering policy is done, and the trial-and-error method is used to optimize the parameters. Finally, the optimal safety coefficient and exponential smooth coefficient of retailers＇ ordering policy are determined. An example indicates the retailers that face capital constraints can use this method to realize the maximization of average profits in the period of the simulation.