广域组织RCEP下我国货物贸易流量的影响因素——基于静态面板数据的贸易引力模型

The effect factors of trade flow in goods of our country in the range of the wide-area integration organization RCEP——With Trade Gravity Model Based on Static Panel Data

在广域一体化组织RCEP的区域范围内,运用基于静态面板数据的贸易引力模型分析方法,对我国货物贸易流量影响因素的问题进行了研究。首先探讨了什么是RCEP及其发展历程,其次对我国与其他RCEP成员国间的货物贸易流量进行描述性统计,接着对货物出口流量与GDP等诸多影响因素间的关系进行实证研究,再通过对描述性统计和计量研究进行总结,认为我国与其他RCEP成员国间的货物贸易增长较快但增长率并不稳定,GDP和距离因素是影响相互间贸易的主要因素,人口数量、TPP及FTA是次要因素。

The thesis studies the effect factors of trade flow in goods of our country in the regional range of the wide- area integration organization RCEP, using the method of the trade gravity model based on static panel data. Firstly, the the- sis studies what is RCEP and its development process; Secondly, the thesis descriptively analyzes the trade flow in goods between our country and other RCEP member countries, and then empirically researches the relationship between trade flow in goods and many effect factors, for example GDP; By summarizing descriptive analysis and empirical research, the con- clusions are trade flow in goods between our country and other RCEP member countries grow rapidly, but the growth rate is not steady; The main effect factors are GDP and distance, the quantity of population,TPP and FFA are subordinate factors.