房地产周期、固定资产投资周期与经济周期的关联性——基于货币政策视角下的分析

THE CORRELATION OF BUSINESS CYCLE WITH REAL ESTATE AND FIXED ASSETS CYCLE ——An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Monetary Policy

本文应用TVSTAR方法实证研究了房地产周期、固定资产投资周期与经济周期的关联性,以及货币供给量M0,M1和利率的调整对联动的影响。研究结果显示,经济增长周期与房地产周期间存在显著的区制性特征。在收缩区制,房地产周期的变动是引起CPI周期变动的原因,而固定资产投资周期具有显著的逆经济增长周期的波动特征。在扩张区制,货币供给量M0和M1增加,对稳定经济增长、增加投资和维持房地产市场的繁荣具有积极作用,但持续和过度的宽松货币政策易引发通胀和房地产泡沫,在收缩区制,上述货币政策工具失效。

In this paper, the TVSTAR methods is applied to analyze the linkage between the business cycle with the real estate and fixed assets investment cycle, as well as the effect of amount of money supply M0, M1 and interest rate on the linkage are empirical studied. We find that the fluctuations of economic growth cycle have significant impact on real estate cycle in different regime. In shrink regime, the fluctua- tions of real estate has a significant impact on the CPI cycle, the cycle of the fixed asset investment has a significant adverse economic fluctuation characteristics. In the expansion cycle, the increase of money sup- ply M0 and M1 have a positive effect on stable economic growth, increase investment and extension the boom cycle of the real estate, but persistent and excessive loose monetary policy could lead to inflation and real estate bubble. In shrink regime, the above monetary policy tools ineffective.