我国沿海地区城市系统对台风的气候敏感性研究

Analysis on Sensitivity of Urban Soci-Economic System Responding to Typhoon in the Coastal Area of China

台风是我国沿海地区面临的主要气候风险之一,目前对气候风险的研究以灾害的自然属性为主,而非受灾地区的气候敏感性。沿海城市是财富和人口的高度聚集地,判断城市各部门对台风的敏感性有助于沿海城市的城市规划与产业布局。文章采用模糊灾度评价方法构建的气候敏感性指数,分析各指标对台风和风暴潮的敏感性响应灵敏程度,敏感指数越高的指标,赋予的权重越大。分析发现,在类似"黑格比"强度的台风侵袭下,珠海等四个沿海城市的气候脆弱性较大,各部门对台风和风暴潮气候风险的敏感性响应灵敏程度由高到低为:自然资源部门>人口部门≥产业部门>基础设施。建议将适应性研究纳入城市发展规划和地方政府应对气候变化工作的重点;协调好减缓和适应行动的关系;加强基础设施和城市生命线建设工作;加强人口管理工作,增强公众保险意识。

Typhoon is one of major climatic risks attack on the coastal area. The most relative researches focus on Typhoon＇s nature but not sensitivity of stricken city. The coastal cities are the aggregation of wealth and population.It will be helpful to judge the sensitivity of urban soci-economic system responding to climatic risks for urban planning. This article employs fuzzy mathematics to build the index of climatic risks sensitivity of four urban departments, and analyzes the level of sensitivity of each department responding to typhoon, for the indictors, the higher level of sensitivity, the heavier weight of indicator. The study shows that, there are four cities system will be fragile and vulnerable under the typhoon ＂Hagupit＂, the climatic sensitivity of departments are arranged in order of high to low, department of land and resources, population, industry, and infrastructure. It suggestes that taking the research work of adapting climate change to the urban planning and the activities of addressing climate change in local government level, strengthening the works of infrastructure and city＇s lifeline build, integrating the relationship between mitigation and adaptation; enhancing public awareness of insurance.