我国产业关联外溢的实证研究--基于交通设备制造业的数据

An Empirical Study on the Spillover of Industrial Linkage——Based on Data of China's Transport Equipment Manufacturing Industry

经济系统中各个产业之间存在着关联,而一国各个产业之间的关联,部分外溢为国内产业与国外产业之间的关联,即存在着产业关联外溢的问题。本文基于中国交通设备制造业的数据,分析2002-2010年该产业在投入产出表中的相关变化,测算该产业及其产业关联外溢对中国经济增长的效应;并进一步考察了产业关联外溢与国内增加值之间的动态联系。最后,探讨了产业关联外溢问题对产业体系内生形成的启示。

In the economic system,there is a linkage between each industry. A portion of the linkage between domestic industries shifts for the linkage between domestic and foreign industries. That is the existence of spillover problem of industrial linkage. Based on the growth data of Chinese transport equipment manufacturing industry,the change in 4 tables of input and output from 2002 to 2010 are analyzed,the domestic growth effect from the industry and the spillover of industrial linkage are estimated,the dynamic correlation between the spillover of industrial linkage and domestic growth rates are researched,thus a further interpretation is made for the input- output tables accordingly. Some spillover problems regarding industrial linkage in industry system are concluded finally.