房地产宏观调控政策效果——青岛市为例

Effect of Real Estate Macro-control Policy: Case Study of Qingdao City

应用系统工程理论,基于青岛市2001 ～2011年的房地产数据,首先建立了房地产市场发展状况评价体系,然后依次使用Z-Score法、线性内插外推和巨警调整等方法对评价指标进行调整;采用层次分析法和变异系数法相结合确定指标组合权重值,将调整后的各年房地产指标数值与其组合权重值相乘,得到综合评价值,进而构建房价-房地产市场发展评价模型,综合评价青岛市房地产市场发展状况.结果表明：我国房地产宏观调控未取得预期效果,建议重点运用经济手段和土地政策调整房地产市场,减少行政干预,保持调控政策的长期性和一致性,从而保障房地产市场健康持续发展.

Using system engineering theory,based on real estate data of Qingdao city from 2001 to 2011,we firstly established a real estate market development evaluation system,and then adjusted the data of every evaluation index by using Z-Score method,linear interpolation and extrapolation and warning value adjustment method,selected analytic hierarchy process and the variation coefficient method to determine combination weight value,multiplied the adjusted real estate index value of each year by its combination weight value to get the comprehensive evaluation value,and finally constructed the house price-real estate market development evaluation model to make the comprehensive evaluation of Qingdao real estate market development status.The results show that the real estate macro-control policy effect is unfavorable.Consequently we suggest to focus oneconomic means and land policy to adjust real estate market and reduce administrative intervention; moreover,keep the real estate macro-control policy stable and consistent,in order to ensure the persistent and healthy development of the real estate market.