一种基于多阶段数据的实航工作可靠度评估方法

An Assessment Method for Operational Reliability in Sea Trial Based on Multi-stage Experimental Data

基于产品研制不同阶段的实航试验数据,运用顺序约束的二项分布可靠性阶段增长模型和贝叶斯统计方法,建立了一种实航工作可靠度评估方法,有效解决了研制不同阶段产品技术状态变化造成实航试验数据不能用于可靠性评估的问题,提高了实航试验数据的利用效率,能够客观、经济地评价实航工作可靠度。

For solving the problem that the sea trial data cannot be used in operational reliability assessment due to the change of product technical condition in different stages, an assessment method for operational reliability in sea trial based on multi-stage sea trial data is presented by using the reliability stage growth model with ordered constraint bi- nomial distribution and the Bayesian statistics. Application results show that this assessment method can improve the utilization of the data from sea trial, and assess the operational reliability objectively and economically in sea trial.