河北省小麦联合收割机保有量预测

The Prediction of the Wheat Combine Ownership in Hebei Province

跨区作业的出现和农机购置补贴政策的出台,极大调动了农民购买、使用小麦联合收割机的积极性。随着保有量稳定持续上升,市场将逐渐趋于饱和;但是,由于需求总量大,可能仍有较大的发展空间。对未来保有量进行预测,可为农民投资购机、政府科学性规划、市场合理配置提供导向作用。为此,预测了未来5年河北省小麦联合收割机的保有量,由于数据量、信息量小,并且为非典型分布,因此选取灰色系统预测模型。经过计算和检验,模型相对误差均小于1%,平均相对精度达到99.775%,模拟精度等级为一级,预测结果可靠。结果分析可知,河北省小麦联合收割机在未来5年中仍呈现稳定的递增趋势。

With the emergence of inter-district homework and the promulgation of farm machinery purchase subsidy poli-cy , farmers are encouraged to purchase and use wheat combine .As the stable ownership continues to rise , the market will gradually tend to be saturated .But because of the large demand quantity , there still existing a larger development space .To forecast the ownership for the future can provide the guiding role for farmers to investment , government to pro-ject scientifically , market to configurate reasonably .The ownership of wheat combine is predicted in the next five years in Hebei Province , owing to the small amount of data and information and atypical distribution , gray system Prediction mod-el is chosen .Through calculation and test , the relative error is less than 1%, average relative precision reaches 99 . 775%, simulation accuracy is the first class and prediction results are reliable .It can be seen that Wheat Combine in the next five years in Hebei Province will still present a stable increasing trend .