河北省棉花气候风险度及其变化趋势分析

Analysis on the climate risk degree and change trend of cotton in Hebei Province

为了更好地探讨河北省棉花生产中气候风险的时空分布规律，利用河北省21个棉花种植县1970-2011年气象和棉花产量数据，对棉花各个发育期气温、降水、日照及气候风险度及其时空变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：棉花各气候要素风险度降水最大，为0．138～0．267；其次为温度，为0．007～0．173；日照最小，为0．019～0．04。各个发育时期中各气候要素风险度不同，风险度时空变化趋势也有很大差别；风险度空间分布有明显的区域性特征，南部棉区高于中北部棉区，从历史变化趋势看降水风险度苗期和花铃期上升，其它发育期下降，其中蕾期、吐絮期下降比较明显；气温风险度除花铃期略上升外，其它略有下降；日照风险度除播种期外，均有上升趋势。该研究结果对于河北省棉花生产布局与科学决策具有重要的参考意义。

In order to discuss the spatial and temporal distribution regulation of climate risk in the cotton production in Hebei Province ,have analyzed the air temperature ,precipitation ,sunshine hours in each cotton growth stage ,climate risk degree and its spatial and temporal changing trend by using the meteorologic data and cotton yield in 21 cotton plant-ing counties of Hebei Province from1970 to 2011 .The results showed that ：The biggest climate element risk degree was the precipitation ,which was from 0 .138 to 0 .267 ,the secondly was the temperature with 0 .007 to 0 .173 ,the lowest was sunshine hours ,which was 0 .019 to 0 .04 .The climate element risk degree was different in each growth stage ,also the spatial and temporal changing tendency had obvious difference .The spatial distribution of risk degree has obvious re-gional characteristics ,such as the risk degree in south cotton region was higher than the mid-northern region .From the historical change trend ,the precipitation risk degree was increased in seedling stage and flowering and boll -forming stag , but decreased in other growth stages ,among them the decrease was more obviously in the flower and boll stage and open -ing stages .The air temperature risk degree was slightly increased in the flower and boll stage ,but in other stages was slightly decreased .The risk degree of sunshine hours excepted the planting stage ,total had the increasing trend .This re-search results have the important significance for the cotton production layout and scientific decision-making in Hebei Province .