气候变化背景下玉米棉铃虫消长动态预测及影响因素研究

Study on the factors affecting corn's Helicoverpa armigera dynamic prediction under the background of climate change

采用甘肃省武威市农技中心植保站1999-2008年棉铃虫观测资料及武威市气象局观测站1953-2010年气象资料，利用统计学方法中的作物生长模型、主成分分析方法，建立了棉铃虫种群增长模型和气象预报预测模型，分析了气候变暖特征及对棉铃虫种群增长的影响。结果表明：玉米棉铃虫百株卵量周年增长动态分缓慢增长、快速增长、减速增长三个时期，快速增长期出现在7月下旬末至8月上旬（玉米吐丝期）；建立了棉铃虫卵始见期、卵高峰期、高峰期卵量、高峰期虫量气候预测模型，预测准确率78％～89％，可用于棉铃虫预报业务应用；揭示了气候变化对玉米棉铃虫发生发展的影响：棉铃虫越冬期（12-2月）最低气温每10年增温0．58℃，暖冬利于棉铃虫安全越冬，越冬基数增加，成活率提高；繁殖期（5-9月）≥10℃积温每10年增加133℃。热量条件改善，有利于棉铃虫种群增长加快、繁殖代数增加、危害期延长；气候极端事件发生的不确定性，对棉铃虫的发生发展将起到明显的抑制作用。

The helicoverpa armigera investigation data from the Center of Plant Protection Station of Wuwei and me -teorological data during 1953 to 2010 years from Wuwei Bureau of Meteorology were used .We established population growth model of helicoverpa armigera and meteorological forecast model ,by which the characteristics and effects of cli-mate warming were analyzed .The results showed that the accumulated egg number per 100 plants’ growth followed a typ-ical “S” curve .The rapid growth period was in late July to early August （the corn silking stage） .The prediction model had a prediction accuracy rate of 78% ~ 89% .The impact of climate change on the occurrence and development of heli-coverpa armigera were revealed .And the increased temperature was favorable for helicoverpa armigera population growth and reproduction .