秃尾河年径流变异点综合诊断研究

Research on the comprehensive diagnosis of change point of tuwei river's yearly runoff

研究流域水文水资源的演变规律,可为流域水资源开发利用和保护以及区域社会经济的可持续发展提供重要的决策依据。本研究以秃尾河流域出口水文站高家川站1956—2004年年平均流量和年降水量资料为主,对该流域径流和降水的趋势性和跳跃性进行了分析诊断,结果表明该流域降水的趋势性和跳跃性不显著;而径流具有非常显著的减小趋势,经多种方法综合诊断,最终确定了该流域径流在1978年发生跳跃变异,最后结合实际水文调查资料从成因上对结果进行了合理性论证。综合诊断有效地解决了单一检验方法检验结果可信度较差,多种检验方法检验结果不一致的问题,对复杂的时间序列变异点的识别与检验有一定的效果。

Research on evolution of hydrology and water resources in river basin can provide an important decision basis for the utilization and protection of basin water resources and regional sustainable development of economy and soci -ety .In this study ,the watershed runoff and precipitation trends and variability are analyzed according to the annual flow and precipitation data in 1956 - 2004 of Tuwei River Watershed outlet station-Gaojiachuan station .The results show that the precipitation trend and variability is not obvious ,and the runoff decreased significantly .It is determined eventually that the jump variation of runoff occurred in 1978 by comprehensive diagnosis with various methods .The rationality of re-sults is reasoned according to its origin combined with actual survey .Comprehensive diagnosis effectively solves poor reli-ability for single test and inconsistency between various tests ,and has certain effects for identification and test to variation point of complex time series .