ARIMA模型预测浙中核心城市固定资产投资增长率——以验证金华市预期年增长30%可能性为例

ARIMA model to predict the growth rate of fixed asset investment in Zhejiang core urban: to verify the possibility of expected annual growth of 30% in Jinhua for example

以浙中核心城市金华为研究对象,采用ARIMA模型对金华市固定资产投资进行短期预测并计算出未来短期内的增长速度,以此来验证金华市"十二五"期间的固定资产投资速度预期年增长率达30%的可能性。研究结论:金华市在"十二五"时期要实现固定资产投资年增长30%的可能性不大,该结论为政府后期分析影响固定资产投资增长率的相关因素提供了依据,有利于政府采取措施及时调整预期和实际之间的偏差,这也对浙中其他城市的发展产生了一定的借鉴意义。

This paper takes Jinhua, which is the core city of Zhejiang province, as the research object, using ARI- MA model to forecast fixed assets investment and calculate the future growth rate of Jinhua in the short term, in or- der to verify the possibility of Jinhuas expected annual growth of 30% in ＂Twelfth Five-Year＂ period. Conclusion of the study shows that： to achieve annual growth of 30% of fixed asset investment in Jinhua is unlikely in the ＂Twelfth Five-Year＂ period. The conclusion provides a basis for the government＇ s later analysis on factors that re- lated to the growth rate of fixed assets investment, it helps the government to take measures to adjust the deviation between the expected and actual, and also provides certain reference for the development of other cities in central Zhejiang.