浅析新疆经济的各产业发展是否均衡

Discussion on the Balance of the Economic Development of Various Industries in Xinjinag

本文对1990—2012年的新疆生产总值及三产总值数据做了统计分析,建立了新疆地区生产总值与三产生产总值关于年份的指数回归方程,通过对方程进行显著性统计分析,得知第一产业和第三产业发展均衡,但二者均在新疆经济平均发展水平之下,第二产业发展迅速,高于平均水平,占地区生产总值比重较大.若新疆经济的发展模式不变,根据回归方程预计五年后,即2017年新疆地区生产总值达到1.6万亿,一产总值达到0.24万亿,二产总值0.88万亿,三产总值0.54万亿,二产总值达到地区生产总值的一半以上,三者发展极不均衡,出现较大差异.当地政府应该采取相应的措施保持新疆经济的基本平衡.

In this paper, we make a statistical analysis on the GDP data of Xinjiang Province of China during 1990-2012, and then the index equations for the economy of Xinjiang are established. By a significant statistical analysis, we obtain that the development speed of the primary industry and tertiary industry keeps equilibrium, but both are below the average development level of economy in Xinjiang, the second industry development is rapid, above average GDP proportion. If Xinjiang economic development model is constant, according to the regression equation, in 2007, after five years, Xinjiang regional GDP will reach nearly 1.6 trillion, the production value of the first industries will be 0.24 trillion, secundiparity gross comes up to 0.88 trillion, the tertiary industry will be 0.54 trillion, secundiparity gross reached more than half of GDP, the development levels of the three industries in Xinjiang will be unequal. The local government should take some corresponding policies to balance the economic development of Xinjiang.