摘要
特许期是政府和项目公司在高速公路BOT项目的前期决策阶段的重要决策参数。通过对此类项目特许期影响因素的因果关系分析,基于系统动力学方法构建了项目特许期决策模型。在此基础上,运用系统动力学分析软件Vensim PLE对高速公路BOT项目案例进行模拟,并采用敏感性分析方法考察年交通量、建设成本和运营成本等关键因素对特许期的影响程度,以期为政府和项目公司确定高速公路BOT项目的特许期提供决策参考。
During the early decision-making stage of BOT highway project, concession period is one of the most important variables for the government and the project company. A decision-making model of the concession period using System Dynamics method is developed based on the analyses of the project influencing factors. On this basis, a simulation of highway BOT highway project case using software Vensim PLE is given, and the sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of risk factors on concession period is put forward, including annual traffic, construction cost and operating cost, which provides a reference for determining the concession period of BOT highway projects for both the government and the project company.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期91-97,共7页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71072107
71272091)
辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划项目(LJQ2013011)
关键词
高速公路
BOT
特许期
系统动力学
敏感性分析
Highway
Build-Operate-Transfer （BOT）
Concession Period
System Dynamics
Sensitivity Analysis
