基于网络传播视角的消费品价格波动关联效应模拟研究

Simulation Study on Associated Effects of Goods Price Volatility Based on Complex Spread

以广东省135个部门投入产出表为基础,引入贝塔系数(β)、传导率参数(γ)和对外敏感度参数(θ)3个参数,对以往价格影响模型进行了进一步改进,建立了新的价格影响模型,根据该模型测算了商品或部门之间价格波动关联效应。由于运用价格影响模型研究价格波动关联效应存在拆并投入产出表的困难,为弥补不足,本文引入网络传播的方法,建立网络价格传播模型来模拟在价格影响模型下的价格波动关联效应,得到当价格波动扩散沿网络最短路快速传播时,模拟的结果与价格影响模型下的波动关联效应结果比较相近。该模拟模型的建立可为进一步研究消费品价格波动关联效应提供了新的思路和视角。

This paper builds a new input-output table of 30 departments by splitting and merging input-output table of 135 departments in Guangdong Province, and constructs the new price volatility associated mechanism model of Guangdong by introducing the beta coefficient （β）, the conductivity parameter （γ） and the external sensitivity parameters （θ） based on the previous price affect model, and calculates the associated effects of price fluctuation between industries and departments. Because of the complexity in splitting the input-output table, the above model is difficult to popularize. To compensate for the above weakness, this paper simulates the associated effects of price fluctuation between industries and departments by the price spread model based on complex network. This paper provides a new idea and perspective for the study on the associated effects of price fluctuations.