中国二线城市商品住房供需特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Commodity Housing Supply and Demand of China's Second-Tier Cities

本文以杭州、无锡、成都、武汉、青岛等12个二线城市为研究对象,通过分析统计年鉴中反映商品住房总体供需状况的住宅商品房竣工面积、销售面积、出租面积指标,从宏观角度归纳中国二线城市住房供需的特征:绝大多数二线城市总体供需影响因素较类似,波动趋势较为一致;但各自的社会和经济的发展阶段有所不同,可聚类为GDP滞后型、均衡型、需求超前型、全面滞后型、非均衡型五种类型;同时,商品住房出租面积偏小,供需比波动下降,反映出我国二线城市住房需求市场结构的不合理,总体供需结构的不协调,是未来商品住房市场调整的重点。

This paper takes 12 second-tier cities as the research objects, including Hangzhou, Wuxi, Chengdu, Wuhan, Qingdao, and etc. By analyzing the data of Completed residential housing area, Residential commercial housing sales area, Residential housing rental area which reflect supply and demand situation of the commercial housing in the statistical yearbook, the results show that the majority of second-tier cities have similar fluctuations rise under the similar factors. But 12 cities are in different development stage, and can be divided into five types-- GDP lagged type, balanced type, demand advanced type, comprehensive lagged type, and unbalanced type. At the same time, according to small commercial housing rental area and fluctuations drop of the rate of supply and demand, it reflects the unreasonable structure of China＇s second4ier cities housing demand market, and the structure mismatch between supply and demand, which will be the focus of the commodity housing market adjustment in the future.