基于预防性储蓄理论的中国保险消费外部性研究

A Study on the Externality of Chinese Insurance Consumption Based on the Theory of Precautionary Savings

中国消费内需市场潜力巨大，启动的关键在于增强人们对未来经济生活稳定的预期和降低国民的预防性储蓄动机。从经济外部性的视角，在预防性储蓄理论分析的基础上，研究社会消费与居民财富、收入水平、保险消费之间的联动关系，运用VAR模型对1980年-2010年间全国层面的年度时序数据进行实证分析，显示社会消费与国民收入、储蓄存款、保险消费之间存在长期稳定的关系，保险消费能有效地推动社会总消费支出的增长和提升储蓄向投资转化的效率，从而对我国经济的持续增长起到明显的促进作用，保险消费的外部性效应正日益显现。

There is a great potential in Chinese domestic consumption market. The key to trigger it is to enhance people＇s expectation of a stable economic life in the future and to re- duce their motivation for precautionary savings, which can be achieved by promoting in- surance consumption. Based on the Theory of Precautionary Savings, from the perspective of economic externality, this paper studies the interrelationship among aggregate con- sumption, residents＇ wealth, income and insurance consumption. By using the VAR model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the nation-wide yearly time-series data during the period 1980 - 2010. The results indicate a stable relationship among the ag- gregate consumption, the national income, savings and insurance consumption. Insurance consumption can effectively promote the increase of the expenditure of aggregate consump- tion as well as the transfer from savings to investment, which will facilitate a constant ,growth for the country＇s economy. The effect of externality of insurance consumption is ~ecoming increasingly obvious.