变局中的兴盛与衰落——抗战后期(1943年-1945年)重庆工业衰退原因再探

The Prosperity and Decline in Transition——Revisiting the Reason of Chongqing's Manufacturing Decline in the Late Period of the War(1943-1945)

抗战后期(1943年-1945年)因内迁而盛的重庆工业走向衰落,造成这种衰落的根源可以阐释为市场需求的转型、战争环境对工业发展的影响、重庆工业集中布局的缺陷三个方面。市场方面,由于内迁工厂重建与复工高潮的结束,工业市场急剧萎缩,市场需求由初级成品向深加工转变,从而使工业产值跌落。1943年后因地域封锁和战局颓势,重庆工业原料供应日趋紧张,庞大的军费导致后方金融秩序的崩溃与物价飞涨对工业造成极为恶劣的影响。从工业布局来看,抗战时期重庆的集中工业布局导致建筑成本高涨,能源供应紧张,市场竞争激烈,运输压力陡增,这些问题随抗战后期内需的萎缩与战场的颓势而愈发明显。战时影响工业发展的要素是复杂多样的,在时代变局下快速崛起的工业经济往往不具备持久性。

Chongqing＇s manufacturing, which boomed because of immigration, declined in the late peri- od of the Anti-Japanese War （1943--1945） . The root causing the decline can be interpreted in the fol- lowing three aspects; the market demand transformation, the impact of industrial development from war environment, and the defects of Chongqing＇s industrial layout. As for market, industrial market shrunk rapidly and market demand changed from primary products to deep processing because of the end of reconstruction of immigrant factories and climax of the resumption of work, so that industrial output dropped. After 1943, due to the regional blockade and the declining tendency of war, raw material sup- ply of Chongqing＇s manufacturing was increasingly tight. The huge military expenditure led to the col- lapse of financial order and inflation in rear area. As a result, it exerted extremely bad influence on in- dustry. From the perspective of industrial layout, the concentrated industrial layout in Chongqing during the Anti-Japanese War led to rise of construetion costs, tension of energy supply, intensity of the mar- ket competition, and pressure of the transportation. These problems became increasingly obvious with shrink of domestic demand and declining tendency on battlefield in late period of the war. The influential factors of war toward industrial development are complex and diverse. The industrial economy emerged rapidly in the changing era often does not persist.