通过匹配原油计价量与加工量规避原油计价风险的探讨

A Discussion on Methods of Avoiding Crude Pricing Risks by Matching Crude Pricing Volume and Processing Volume

进口原油具有的贸易特点及计价方法,与炼油企业当期销售成品油的计价方法不同,造成原油与成品油计价期不同,在国际油价剧烈波动,特别是油价快速下跌时,使炼油企业严重亏损。当企业均衡生产时,这种时间差带来的市场风险会通过装置长周期运行而减小,但当企业的加工和采购进度因装置检修、非计划停工以及市场供需调整等原因进行大幅调整时,成本和产品价格之间的时间差可能会给企业带来巨大风险。分别介绍了进口原油、成品油的贸易特点及计价方法,提出了如何研究国际油价走势。分析了国际油价上涨时,如何选择原油计价期,实现低价采购原油、高价销售成品油的目标;国际油价下跌时,如何实现同期原油计价量与原油加工量匹配,实现均衡计价,规避因国际油价波动造成的企业亏损,进一步剖析了如何运用套期保值方法,锁定当期炼油企业原油加工效益。同时,列举了操作中的注意事项,提出套期保值应善于选择时机操作,加强计划管理的重要性,以及控制合理库存的必要性。

The characteristics and pricing method for crude oil import differ with those for refining enterpris- es＇ oil product sales ,resulting in different pricing cycles for crude oil and oil products,in turn inflicting sig- nificant loss on refiners when international oil prices are fluctuating dramatically,particularly when oil prices are taking a dive.When an enterprise is able by the time difference will be reduced through to maintain equilibrium in production,the market risks caused the long-term operation of production units.However,when the enterprise＇s processing and procurement progress is dramatically adjusted due to unit overhauls,non-planned shutdown or changes in market demand,the time difference between cost and product prices may cause enor- mous risks to the enterprise.This article describes the characteristics of crude oil and oil product imports as well as the pricing methods,and presents methods of studying the trend in international oil prices.The article also analyzes how a refiner should select the crude oil pricing cycle when international oil prices are going up in order to buy in crude oil at relatively low prices and to sell oil products at relatively high prices and how the enterprise should match the crude pricing volume and processing volume for the same cycle to achieve balanced pricing in order to avoid losses caused by international oil price fluctuations.Also discussed is how an enterprise should use hedging to lock its earnings from crude processing for the specific period. The article also lists operational precautions and emphasizes the significance of timing hedging and strength- ening plan management as well as the necessity of maintaining a rational level of inventory