政府投资对产业结构动态冲击效果研究

Dynamic Impact Effect of Government Investment on Industrial Structure

根据我国1981～2010年的统计数据构建了由政府投资和第一、二、三产业产值等4个变量组成的VAR模型，利用脉冲响应和方差分解方法分析了我国政府投资对产业结构的动态冲击效果。结果表明：政府投资对第一产业冲击效果为正向，在第一期有明显效果，短期内逐渐减缓直到最低点，而长期效果有所增强；政府投资对第二产业和第三产业均为正向冲击，在短期内都没有明显影响，随时间逐渐增强；并且政府投资对第三产业的长期冲击较第二产业大。

Based on the statistical data of 1981-2010 in China, this paper constructs a VAR model which involves four variables of government investment , the primary industry output values , the secondary industry output values and the tertiary industry output values , and uses impulse response and variance decomposition method to analyze dynamic impact effect of government investment on industrial structure .The results suggest that the impact effect of the government investment on the primary industry is positive , remarkable in the first period , and then gradually decreases in the short term until the lowest point , but long-term sustainability of the effect is increased;the impact effects of the government investment on the secondary industry and the tertiary industry are also positive , unremarkable in the short term , and then gradually increase;the impact effect of the government investment on the tertiary industry is more than that on the secondary industry in the long term.