摆脱对HFO的依赖性需要多年时间

Lloyd's Register says conquering HFO dependency will take years

用16年的时间完全摆脱现在普遍使用的船用燃料油是不现实的，重燃料油在2030年仍占主导地位。

A complete overturn of the marine fuel landscape is not realistic in 16 years, argues an LR report that claims heavy fuel oil will still be dominant in 2030. Between one-half and two-thirds of tankers, bulkers and boxships will still be burning heavy fuel oil(HFO) in 2030,requiring a significant uptake in emissions-abatement technology, according to a new report, LNG will take a maximum 11% of the market, predicts the 'Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030' survey published by Lloyd's Register(LR), which although an apparently small amount, the researchers say is a significant share. Lower HFO use will also see an increased uptake of low-sulphur alternatives like marine gas oil(MGO/ MDO) or low-sulphur heavy fuel oil(LSHFO). The report uses three scenarios of 'Status Quo', 'Global Commons' —in which further globalisation occurs with economic growth alongside greater harmonization of regulation一and 'Competing Nations', which sees the opposite^more localization of production, protectionism and regulatory fragmentation. With overall fuel demand expected to double by 2030,it also means that new fuel sources will have a much higher rate of growth than HFO, even in the worstcase scenario.