近54年辛集市气温及降水变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation in Xinji in Recent 54 Years

根据河北省辛集气象站近54a（1957-2010年）的月平均地面观测资料，采用气候统计学方法，分别从气温及降水的趋势变化、周期变化、突变特征等方面进行分析，总结该市近54a气温及降水的变化特征。结果表明：1）近54a来辛集市年平均气温、各季平均气温及极端最低气温呈显著上升趋势，四季中冬季增温趋势最明显，夏季增温幅度最弱，极端最低气温上升而极端最高气温下降，导致气温日较差减小；2）在20世纪60年代，年平均和冬季气温表现出准2～3a的显著年际变化周期，年平均和春季气温还表现出准7a的显著年际周期特征；3）该市年降水量近54a来整体呈先增加后减少的变化趋势；4）年和夏秋季降水量在20世纪60年代均表现出准3～4a的周期特征，而在春季准7a的年际振荡贯穿始终；5）辛集市的气温变化趋势以及突变开始时间与全国、河北省以及石家庄地区近50a气温变化基本一致，但该市的降水量变化则略有不同，降水量变化的长期趋势不显普且突变不明显，主要是由于降水量的时空变化差异性较大。

Based on the monthly mean surface observational data of Xinji weather station in Hebei province in the past 54 years （1957-2010）, variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation were summarized by analyzing the trend variation, periodic variation and mutation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in climatological statistics methods. The results are as follows. 1） The annual and seasonal mean temperature and extreme minimum temperature were generally rising over the period, warming trend in winter was the most notable, summer warming trend was the weakest, extreme minimum temperatures rise and extreme maximum temperatures decline, which led to reduced daily range in recent 54 years. 2） The annual mean temperature and winder temperature showed significant interannual variation of quasi 2-3 a in 1960s, and quasi 7 a in annual mean temperature and spring temperature. 3） The annual precipitation showed a tendency of first increase after decline in recent 54 years. 4） The annual, summer and autumn precipitation showed interannual variation of quasi 3-4 a in 1960s, interannual oscillation of quasi 7 a in spring. 5） The temperature variation trend and mutation start time in Xinji were in accordance with that in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province and nationwide in recent 50 years. However, longtime trend and mutation of precipitation in Xinji are not significant for the lager spatial-temporal discrepancy of precipitation.