人口老龄化对劳动供给和人力资本投资时间的影响

An Impact of Population Ageing on Labour Supply and Human Capital Investment

参照贝克尔的时间分配理论和海克曼的生命周期理论,运用动态世代交叠均衡模型,研究人口老龄化对劳动供给和人力资本投资时间分配的影响,并进一步考察人口老龄化对生产能力的间接影响。结果显示:在短期内,人口老龄化会导致人力资本投资时间的增加和劳动供给的减少,进而引发社会生产能力的下降,增加了人口老龄化的经济成本;在长期内,人口老龄化使得年轻人能够为社会提供更多的熟练劳动力,进而提高了社会劳动生产率,降低了人口老龄化的经济成本。

With regard to the spirit of the theory of allocation of time（ Becker, 1965） and a life-cycle model（ Heckman, 1976）, this study explores the long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in China, as well as the induced effects on productive capacity. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping genera- tions model. The paper indicates that population ageing creates more opportunities for individuals to invest in human capital and supply more skilled labour. Consequently, the reduction in labour supply initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. However,future labors are more skilled and work more,which eventually raises pro- ductive capacity and significantly lowers the cost of population ageing.