东西摇摆的困局与宿命——乌克兰政局动荡的外交史分析

Predicament and Fate: Swinging between the East the West—Analysis of the Diplomatic History behind the Political Unrest in Ukraine

乌克兰的流血冲突和政局变化引起国际社会的极大关注。权力斗争从街头转入中央拉达后会给乌克兰带来什么样的命运?短短3个月的时间,乌克兰国内形势发生如此突变,原因究竟何在?回答这些问题,需要从乌克兰地缘政治特点及其国内东西部文化背景和心态差异等因素中寻找线索。本文从历史角度分析独立以来的乌克兰对外政策特点与国内政局变化,阐述乌克兰当前政治动荡的原因,美国、欧盟与俄罗斯之间的博弈及各方底线,重点分析乌克兰对外政策东西摇摆的原因。

International attention has heen drawn to the bloodshed and political change in Ukraine. When power struggle has transferred from the street to the Central Rada, what kind of fate will be brought to Ukraine？ In only three months, drastic changes have taken place in Ukraine＇s domestic situation. What is the reason behind？ To answer these two questions, certain clues may be found by looking at the geopolitical characteristics of Ukraine and the differences in cultural background and mentality between the eastern and western regions of Ukraine. This paper analyzed the characteristics of Ukraine＇s post-independence foreign policy and the changes in its domestic political situation from the historical point of view, and expounded the reasons for the current political turmoil in Ukraine, gameplay between the EU, Russia and the US as well as their respective bottom line, with a focus on analyzing the causes of Ukraine＇s swing foreign policy.