浙江省居民恶性肿瘤死亡变化及趋势预测

PREDICTION ON CHANGE AND TREND OF DEATH RATE OF CANCERS IN RESIDLENTS OF ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

本文利用疾病监测点死因资料 ,对居民恶性肿瘤死亡率的变化及发展趋势预测进行分析。结果显示 ,浙江省居民恶性肿瘤死亡率呈上升趋势 ,90年代末比 80年代中期恶性肿瘤总死亡率上升了 13 88% ,其中男性上升了 14 97% ,女性上升了 11 73 % ;肺癌和肝癌上升速度较快 ,死亡率分别上升了 76 89%和 2 0 2 1% ;宫颈癌和食管癌呈下降趋势 ,死亡率分别下降了 42 11%和 37 17% ;胃癌、鼻咽癌和白血病死亡率变化不大。预测2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 4年居民恶性肿瘤死亡率 ,城市居民胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌和肺癌死亡率将缓慢下降 ,而肝癌死亡率将呈上升趋势 ;农村居民肺癌、肝癌、胃癌和结直肠癌死亡率逐渐上升 ,食管癌死亡率变化不大。提示 ,恶性肿瘤防治工作的重点城乡应有所不同 ,需加强恶性肿瘤危险因素的研究 ,加强健康教育 ,降低恶性肿瘤的死亡率。

An analysis on the chang and trend of cancer death rates based on the data of disease surveillance was carried out in Zhejiang province. The results showed that the general death rate of cancers was increased in the end of 90's by 13.88% over the middle of 80' in Zhejiang province. In which, male was increased over 14.97% while the femal was increased over 11.73%, the death rates of lung cancer and liver cancer were increased by 76.8% and 20.21% respectively. The death rates of cevercal cancer and esophageal cancer were decreased by 42.1% and 37.17% respectively. The prediction of cancer death rates in 2000～2004 was showed that the stomachal, esophageal, colon and lung cancer will decreased gradually but the death rate of liver cancer will increase in urban areas while the lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach and colon cancer will increase gradually in rural areas. It was suggested that the priorities for cancer control were different between rural area and urban area, the study on risk factors of cancer needed to strengthen.