控制性水利工程对长江中下游水资源影响与对策

Influence of key water projects in Yangtze River Basin on water resources of mid-lower reaches and countermeasures

利用水文站实测数据，简要分析了近年来长江中下游干流径流过程变化特点，并通过调度模拟分析，定量确定了三峡工程运行调度对中下游干流水位流量的影响程度；继而结合中下游地区水资源利用现状和取用水特点，分析了控制性水利工程对中下游干流及河口水资源的有利和不利影响。研究认为，工程运行发挥了巨大的蓄洪补枯作用，对中下游及河口水资源利用总体上是有利的，能有效提高中下游供水保障，缓解枯水季节干旱缺水矛盾。为减缓9-11月水库蓄水期不利影响，一方面需要完善水库群综合调度目标，优化蓄水方案，另一方面需按照最严格水资源管理制度要求，制定水资源统一调配方案，同时加强中下游地区引调水工程取用水管理。

The runoff variation characteristics of the mid-lower Yangtze River in recent years are analyzed briefly by using the measured data of hydrological stations. The influential degree of operation and dispatching of the Three Gorges Project （ TGP） to the water level and discharge of mid-lower reaches is determined quantitatively through simulation and analysis. The favorable and unfavorable influences of key water projects on water resources of mid-lower reaches and the estuary are analyzed with con-sideration of the water resources utilization situation and water intake and consumption of mid-lower reaches. The study shows that the huge effects of flood storage and water supplement in dry season is realized after completion and operation of the projects, which is favorable for the water resources utilization of mid-lower reaches and estuary on the whole and can strengthen the water supply guarantee and mitigate the water shortage in drought. In order to reduce the unfavorable impacts during water storage peri-od from September to October, the multi-objective comprehensive regulation of reservoir groups should be perfected and the im-poundment scheme should be optimized; meanwhile, the unified water resources allocation scheme should be prepared and the management of water diversion projects in mid-lower reaches should be improved according to the requirements of the Strictest Water Resources Management System.