隧道突水突泥灾害的模糊预测和控制措施

Fuzzy-prediction and Control Measures for Water Bursting and Mud Surging of Tunnel

为了预测突水突泥灾害发生的可能性和规模,针对隧道施工中突水突泥灾害的影响因素较多,且各因素相互关联,具有很强的模糊性,提出了利用模糊综合评判方法来评判隧道的突水突泥风险,实例证明其结果与实际情况具有较好的一致性。并针对隧道的突水突泥灾害提出了有针对性的控制措施。这对于制定合理的超前地质预报措施、拟定有效的防灾方案、保障隧道安全施工,均有非常重要的意义。

In order to predict the possibility and scale of water bursting and mud surging, in view of the influ- encing factors that are interconnected and with great fuzziness, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed to judge the risk of disaster. Example shows that results of the approach above have a good consistency with the ac- tual situation, and pertinence control measures are put forward. What have done in the paper are of great signifi- cance to make reasonable measures of advance geological forecast, develop an effective disaster prevention plan and protect the safety of the tunnel construction.