地震人员伤亡评估方法研究

A Review of Researches on Seismic Casualty Estimation

我国是一个地震频发的国家,由于我国地震震源较浅,人口密度大,地震的发生往往造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。震后根据地震参数和震区情况进行快速的人员伤亡评估,对于应急救援具有重要意义。在对地震致灾因素进行分析的基础上,对国内外地震人员伤亡评估方法进行了总结。首先,对目前常用的三种评估方法,基于地震参数的经验模型,基于历史资料的震害矩阵法和基于性能的易损性分析方法进行了归纳,然后,介绍了近几年出现的两种新方法,基于最优化方法的经验模型和基于时间序列的动态模型。最后,对这些方法的优缺点及适用范围进行了分析。

Earthquake is a frequent disaster in China, due to shallow source and high population density, an earthquake often leads to huge economic losses and casualties. A rapid assessment of casualties based on seismic parameters and condition in affected areas after the event play a significant role in emergency rescue. By analyzing seismic hazard factors, this paper summarizes the research on seismic casualty estimation all over the world. First, the three most commonly used methods, empirical models based on seismic parameters; building damage matrix methods based on historical data and performance-based vulnerability analysis method are presented. Then, two new methods in recent years are introduced： an empirical model based on optimization method, and a time series- based dynamic model. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages as well as application scope of all these methods are stated.