多项式拟合与多灰色预测模型的矿石自燃分析

Analysis and judgment to spontaneous combustion based on polynomial fitting and many gray predictions models

为对高硫矿山矿堆自燃进行准确预判,减轻矿山自燃给高硫矿山带来的损失,以统计收集的矿山矿石自燃样本集为依据,拟合出矿石自燃的概率与堆放温度之间的关系,以多种灰色预测模型对矿堆矿石的温度变化趋势进行分析并进行精度比较,选取精度最高的灰色预测模型对矿堆矿石温度进行预测,然后对照矿石自燃的概率与堆放温度之间的关系判定其自燃情况,最后提出防治矿石自燃的对策。在对某矿山进行实例分析时,得到1#~6#矿堆最终堆放温度分别为48.5、51.2、63.9、67.3、60.7、55.6℃,对应的矿堆自燃概率分别为48.1%、56.7%、97.4%、100%、87.1%、70.8%。对不同的自燃概率矿堆采取不同的应对措施能收到很好的效果,证明该方法是可行的,可为矿石自燃的预判与防治提供参考。

In order to accurately forecast ore spontaneous combustion for reducing damage inflicted upon mines by the malady, data concerning spontaneous combustion of ore was collected to figure out the relation between the probability of ore spontaneous combustion and the temperature of ore pile. Several grey forecasting models were selected and applied to the analysis of ore pile tempera-ture variation. The results derived by the models were cross-checked against each other, and the grey forecasting model was decided to be the best choice with the most accurate results attained. Ore pile temperature forecasting was then done through the model, and the relation between ore pile tem-perature and the probability of spontaneous combustion was settled. Based upon the relation, coun-termeasures against ore spontaneous combustion were suggested. In the case study concerning a cer-tain mine rich in sulfur, six ore piles （1#, 2#, 3#, 4#, 5#, 6#） were selected as the subjects. The temperature of the piles were 48.5℃, 51.2℃, 63.9℃, 67.3℃, 60.7℃ and 55.6 ℃ respective-ly, and the corresponding probabilities of spontaneous combustion of these piles were 48.1%, 56.7%, 97.4%, 100%, 87.1% and 70.8% respectively. Countermeasures were taken upon for the＆amp;nbsp;six piles and had positive feedback, demonstrating that our method of ore spontaneous combustion was workable, offering a new perspective in the forecasting and fending off ore spontaneous combustion.